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Rates vs roofs: what primary data says ahead of the RBA’s 29 September decision
Wire · 6 Sep 2026
Original graphic · Aus Property Invest. Sources: RBA Cash Rate Target; ABS Building Approvals July 2026
News
Wire · 6 Sep 2026
Original graphic · Aus Property Invest. Sources: RBA Cash Rate Target; ABS Building Approvals July 2026
\n\nCash rate target path with next decision annotated 29 Sep 2026. Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: RBA Cash Rate Target.\n\nThe August media release said inflation is “still too high”, is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the 2–3 per cent target until late 2027, and that there are upside risks to that projection. Policy was judged “somewhat restrictive”. The Board said it would do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, “including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.”\n\nThe published minutes of that meeting record that members weighed a 25 basis point rise against a hold. They left the rate unchanged while assessing incoming data. Several members judged it “quite possible” that upside risks to the inflation forecast would crystallise and require further tightening. All agreed further progress toward the central projection would be needed before they could be confident inflation would return to target at the current setting.\n\nSource: RBA cash rate; MR 2026-19; Minutes 11 Aug 2026.\n\n---\n\n## 2. Inflation scoreboard\n\nThe latest complete monthly CPI (reference July 2026, released 26 August) shows:\n\n| Measure | 12 months to July 2026 | Prior (to June) |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Headline CPI | 3.5% | 3.8% |\n| Trimmed mean | 3.6% | 3.6% |\n\nBoth sit above the top of the RBA’s 2–3 per cent target band. The gap to the mid-point (~2.5%) remains material on both headline and underlying measures.\n\n
\n\nHeadline CPI and trimmed mean vs the RBA 2–3% target band (Apr 2025–Jul 2026). Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: ABS CPI July 2026; RBA inflation target.\n\nIn the month of July, CPI rose 1.0% in original terms and 0.6% seasonally adjusted; the monthly trimmed mean was 0.5%.\n\nLargest annual contributors included Housing (+5.0%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+3.2%) and Recreation and culture (+2.6%). Within housing, new dwellings rose 5.7% over the year and rents 3.6%.\n\n
\n\nHousing group and related annual contributions, July 2026. Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: ABS CPI July 2026.\n\nNote for readers: August CPI is scheduled for 30 September 2026, the day after the Board’s announcement, so September’s decision will not incorporate that print.\n\nSource: ABS CPI July 2026.\n\n---\n\n## 3. Demand under pressure\n\nCredit (RBA Financial Aggregates, July 2026):\n\n| Series | Monthly (Jul) | Year-ended (to Jul) |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Housing credit | +0.5% | +7.4% |\n| Total credit | +0.6% | +8.4% |\n| Business credit | +0.9% | +10.6% |\n\nHousing credit’s monthly pace eased from +0.6% in June. Year-ended housing growth was 7.4% in July, after 7.5% in June.\n\n
\n\nHousing credit monthly and year-ended growth (Jun/Jul 2026). Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: RBA Financial Aggregates June and July 2026.\n\nThe RBA’s August Statement on Monetary Policy (Financial Conditions chapter) said housing credit growth remained above its post-GFC average but had eased by around 0.5 percentage points in six-month-ended annualised terms since the May Statement, for both owner-occupiers and investors. It also reported a sharp decline in new housing loan commitments over recent months, driven by investors, linked to softer established-market conditions, higher rates and announced investor tax changes. Scheduled mortgage and consumer credit payments were just under 12 per cent of household disposable income in the June quarter, close to the 2024 peak.\n\nThe August minutes similarly noted that demand for new housing loans had declined significantly, particularly from investors, and that housing prices were falling in some capital cities after a long period of strong growth.\n\nAPRA (ADI property exposures, March quarter 2026, published 29 June) provides a stock check rather than a July flow: residential credit outstanding $2,512.7 billion (+6.9% year on year); owner-occupier share 67.0%, investor 31.0%; non-performing loans 0.99% (down from 1.08% a year earlier). New loans funded in the quarter were $182.1 billion. That release predates the sharper commitment soft patch described in the August SMP.\n\n
\n\nADI residential credit outstanding and owner-occupier / investor share (March quarter 2026). Stock lags July credit flows. Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: APRA Quarterly ADI Property Exposures March 2026.\n\nSources: RBA Financial Aggregates July 2026; SMP Aug 2026, Financial Conditions; APRA QADIPE Mar 2026 highlights.\n\n---\n\n## 4. Supply still constrained\n\nABS Building Approvals, Australia, July 2026 (released 1 September; seasonally adjusted unless noted):\n\n| Series | Level | m/m | y/y |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| Total dwellings | 17,687 | −3.6% | +9.0% |\n| Private houses | 10,199 | −4.2% | +6.0% |\n| Private other dwellings | 7,119 | −0.4% | +19.9% |\n| Total dwellings (trend) | 18,365 | +0.8% | +11.7% |\n\n
\n\nNational seasonally adjusted dwelling approvals, July 2026 (not South Australia). Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: ABS Building Approvals July 2026.\n\nSo the monthly seasonally adjusted print fell, while the trend for total dwellings still edged higher. Other dwellings were roughly flat on the month but remain strongly higher than a year earlier. The value of total residential building approved fell 4.9% to $11.26 billion (seasonally adjusted).\n\n
\n\nYear-on-year dwelling approvals contrast, July 2026. Original · Aus Property Invest. Data: ABS Building Approvals July 2026.\n\nApprovals are a lead indicator of future completions, not current stock. A soft month against a still-positive trend and solid year-on-year other-dwellings growth leaves the near-term supply pipeline mixed rather than clearly expanding.\n\nSource: ABS Building Approvals July 2026.\n\n---\n\n## 5. What to listen for on 29 September\n\nChecklist of statement language that matters for property (drawn from how the Board framed August):\n\n
\n\nEditorial listening checklist for the 29 September decision. Original · Aus Property Invest. Framing from RBA August 2026 decision and minutes (not an official RBA document).\n\n1. Hold vs hike, and whether any change is framed as data-dependent or pre-emptive against upside inflation risks.\n2. Whether inflation is still described as “too high”, and any update to the path back to the 2–3% band / late-2027 midpoint timing.\n3. Whether policy is still “somewhat restrictive”, or described as needing to be more (or less) restrictive.\n4. Explicit reference to increasing the cash rate if upside risks materialise: retained, softened, or dropped.\n5. Comments on the housing market, new housing loans, and credit: confirmation of further softening vs any sign of stabilisation.\n6. Balance of upside vs downside risks to inflation (oil/Middle East, capacity pressures, AI-related demand, housing downturn, labour market).\n7. Whether the Board stresses waiting for more data (noting August CPI lands the next day) or signals less patience with sticky underlying inflation.\n\nBank and market forecasts for September vs November are expectations, not facts; they are omitted here except as context that pricing can shift quickly after CPI prints.\n\n---\n\n## 6. Bottom line\n\n1. Owner-occupiers: The cash rate remains 4.35%. Scheduled mortgage payments were already near recent peaks as a share of income in the June quarter (RBA SMP). July CPI and a still-elevated trimmed mean keep the Board’s inflation task unfinished; the August minutes left open the option of another rise if upside risks show up in the data.\n2. Investors: Primary data show investor-driven weakness in new housing commitments (RBA SMP/minutes) and a slightly lower monthly housing-credit pace in July. APRA’s March stock still showed investors at about 31% of residential credit. Approvals for other dwellings are up sharply year on year, but the July monthly total fell.\n3. Renters: CPI rents were +3.6% over the year to July. Dwelling approvals remain the main primary window on future supply: a −3.6% monthly dip in total approvals against a +0.8% trend rise, not a clear breakthrough in the national pipeline.\n\nNone of the above is buy, sell, hold or refinance advice. It is a map of what the official numbers say before the Board speaks.\n\n---\n\n## Sources\n\n- RBA Cash Rate Target Overview: 4.35%, effective 12 Aug 2026; next update 2.30 pm 29 Sep 2026 \n- RBA Cash Rate Target table \n- RBA Monetary Policy Decision, 11 August 2026 (MR 2026-19) \n- Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board Meeting, 10–11 August 2026 \n- ABS Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026 \n- ABS Building Approvals, Australia, July 2026 \n- RBA Financial Aggregates, July 2026 \n- RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026, Financial Conditions \n- APRA Quarterly ADI Property Exposures, March 2026 highlights \n\n