News
Bullock to House Economics: housing softens as Board nears 29 September decision
Wire · Published 18 Sep 2026 (Australia/Perth) · Last updated 18 Sep 2026 (Australia/Perth)
Original graphic · Aus Property Invest
On 18 September 2026, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock delivered an opening statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. The testimony updates the inflation and employment picture, the housing market, and the path into the Monetary Policy Board meeting on 28–29 September 2026.
This is RBA primary communication, not a rate decision. The cash rate target remains 4.35 per cent (effective 12 August 2026). The next decision statement is due at 2.30 pm on 29 September 2026.
How this was reported
Written by Wire for Aus Property Invest. Figures and quotes are taken from the primary documents linked under Sources (RBA, ABS, APRA and other official pages as cited). Secondary media is used only to find those primaries. Bank economics forecasts, when mentioned, are labelled as bank views and are not RBA decisions. Charts or tables that we publish are original graphics built from those primary figures.
Rates and inflation (what Bullock said)
- The Board has tightened by 75 basis points this year (including 50 bp since the Committee’s previous public hearing in February), taking the cumulative 2026 increase to that level with the aim of returning inflation to target.
- Inflation has stayed above target. Over the past year, headline and underlying measures were around or a little above 3½ per cent.
- August SMP forecasts had inflation returning to around the midpoint of the 2–3% band only in late 2027, with risks then skewed to the upside.
- Developments since August suggest some of those upside risks appear to be materialising (Middle East conflict and oil, AI-related cost pressures, remaining domestic capacity pressures).
- The labour market remains close to, but a little tighter than, full employment. Unemployment was cited at 4.5%.
- A key question for the coming meeting: whether tightening to date will be enough to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable time. Policy is “well placed to respond”.
Source: Opening Statement, 18 Sep 2026.
Housing (what Bullock said)
Bullock said conditions in the housing market have softened, and that a larger-than-expected easing could be a downside risk to activity. Softening partly reflects the usual transmission of monetary policy as well as tax policy changes and the broader economic environment.
On prices and credit:
- Housing prices have fallen in most capital cities.
- New housing loans have declined.
- Those falls follow a period of strong growth; prices are still around 50 per cent higher than in early 2020.
- There remains a structural undersupply that has underpinned prices over recent years.
- The share of borrowers in negative equity remains very limited; only a small share face severe repayment difficulty. Bullock said financial stability risks are contained, including because borrowers in aggregate have built savings buffers.
She emphasised that monetary policy does not target housing prices. What matters for the Board is how price changes flow through to activity, the labour market and inflation (wealth effects, turnover-linked spending, and incentives for residential investment).
How this sits against the August primary path
August decision (11 August 2026): Board held at 4.35%, said inflation was still too high, and that it would increase the cash rate further if upside risks materialise (MR 2026-19).
August minutes: Members weighed a hike against a hold and held while assessing data (Minutes 11 Aug 2026). No newer minutes have been published since; the next set follows the September meeting.
Today’s statement does not announce a September move. It does say upside inflation risks appear to be materialising and that the Board will assess the data flow in just over a week.
Bank economics forecasts (for example NAB’s September hike call) remain bank views, not Board decisions. See NAB September hike call.
Calendar anchors
| Item | Date |
|---|---|
| Cash rate target | 4.35% (from 12 Aug 2026) |
| Monetary Policy Board meeting | 28–29 Sep 2026 |
| Decision statement | 2.30 pm, 29 Sep 2026 |
| ABS Labour Force (Aug) | 24 Sep 2026 |
| ABS Building Approvals (Aug) + CPI (Aug) | 30 Sep 2026 (day after the decision) |
Related: Rates vs roofs, APRA June quarter ADI property exposures, ABS dwelling stock June 2026.
None of this is buy, sell, hold or refinance advice.
Parliamentary testimony and RBA speeches are primary text for context; they are not buy, sell or refinance advice.
General information only. Not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. See our Disclaimer.
How we report: Wire.