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NAB calls a September cash-rate hike: what the RBA has actually said

Wire · Published 11 Sep 2026 (Australia/Perth) · Last updated 18 Sep 2026 (Australia/Perth)

Original graphic · Aus Property Invest

On 27 August 2026, NAB Economics published an RBA Watch note saying it now expects the Reserve Bank to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting, taking the target to 4.60 per cent. NAB also said the risk is biased toward an additional hike in November if activity data stays resilient.

That is a bank economics view, not an RBA decision. The cash rate target remains 4.35 per cent (effective 12 August 2026). The next Monetary Policy Board decision is due at 2.30 pm on 29 September 2026.

How this was reported

Written by Wire for Aus Property Invest. Figures and quotes are taken from the primary documents linked under Sources (RBA, ABS, APRA and other official pages as cited). Secondary media is used only to find those primaries. Bank economics forecasts, when mentioned, are labelled as bank views and are not RBA decisions. Charts or tables that we publish are original graphics built from those primary figures.

What NAB said (labelled as bank view)

According to NAB's own RBA Watch summary and Monetary Policy Update (27 August 2026):

It expects a +25 bp move in September to 4.60%.
It points to July CPI running hotter than the RBA expected in early August, and to RBA signalling that the Board would act if upside inflation risks were realised.
It sees risk skewed to a further hike in November if activity stays resilient; its base case is still one hike to a peak of 4.60%.

Source (bank view): NAB RBA Watch, 27 Aug 2026; NAB Monetary Policy Update PDF, 27 Aug 2026.

What the RBA has actually published

Cash rate: The target is 4.35%, effective 12 August 2026. Next update: 2.30 pm, 29 September 2026 (RBA cash rate).

August decision (11 August 2026): The Board left the rate unchanged. It said inflation is "still too high", is not expected back around the midpoint of the 2-3% target until late 2027, and that there are upside risks. Policy was judged "somewhat restrictive". The Board said it would do what it considers necessary to return inflation to target, "including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise." The decision was unanimous (MR 2026-19).

August minutes: Members weighed a +25 bp rise against a hold. They held while assessing data. Several members judged it "quite possible" that upside inflation risks would crystallise and require further tightening. All agreed more progress toward the central projection would be needed before they could be confident inflation returns to target at the current setting (Minutes 11 Aug 2026).

Inflation print NAB cites: ABS CPI for the 12 months to July 2026 was 3.5% headline and 3.6% trimmed mean, both above the RBA's 2-3% band (ABS CPI July 2026). August CPI is due 30 September, the day after the Board's announcement.

How to read this into 29 September

Bank forecast is not a Board decision. NAB's September hike call is an economics forecast. Only the Board's 29 September statement changes the cash rate.
The Board left the door open. The August decision and minutes already said the Board would hike further if upside risks materialise. That is the primary text markets and banks are reading.
Data still coming. Between now and the meeting, more activity and labour data can arrive; August CPI lands after the decision.

For the full primary-data map ahead of the meeting, see Rates vs roofs. Related: ABS dwelling stock, June quarter 2026, Australian median prices and rental yields (city snapshots: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth).

None of this is buy, sell, hold or refinance advice.

Bank forecasts named in this piece are economics views, not Reserve Bank decisions. Not a forecast of the cash rate.

General information only. Not financial, investment, legal or tax advice. See our Disclaimer.

How we report: Wire.

Sources

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